Retatrutide Revenue & Valuation Model

FY2025 is Lilly-reported actuals. The non-reta revenue path uses public consensus for 2026-2027 and a 2030 Evaluate prescription-sales anchor net of retatrutide, with 2028-2029 interpolated between those points. Non-reta revenue grows at a flat 5% per year beyond 2030. Forecast years hold gross margin flat at 83% (17% COGS), R&D is held flat at $13.3B (FY2025 actual) since the pipeline is largely funded; the R&D percentage naturally declines as revenue scales. SG&A is kept at a flat 17% of base revenue since it scales with sales activity. Retatrutide revenue carries 0% incremental R&D (drug already developed) and 15.5% SG&A. Below-the-line: $40.9B debt at 4.5% interest (~$1.8B/yr), 19% effective tax rate.

Forward product-level consensus is not fully public. Mounjaro and Zepbound 2030 anchors use Evaluate public forecasts; interim years are interpolated. Trulicity forward years are a model fade based on recent decline.

Implied patient-years are revenue divided by annualized public price anchors. These are directional only: actual realized net ASP depends on rebates, payer mix, dose mix, geography, adherence, and channel.